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When a Neighbouring Conflict Enters PNG’s Security Environment

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By Bernard Yegiora Part Two of a three-part series on the implications of the West Papua conflict for PNG’s national security. Part One of this series identified three warning signs emerging from the West Papua conflict: the display of high-powered firearms by armed groups, the killing of an American pilot, and the execution of three Indigenous Papuans accused of being “traitors.” These incidents indicate increasing armed capability, an expansion in the range of people considered legitimate targets, and a willingness by armed groups to enforce political loyalty through violence. However, the security implications for PNG do not depend on armed fighters launching a direct attack across the international border. A neighbouring conflict can enter PNG’s security environment in other ways. It can produce refugee movements, firearms trafficking, intelligence activity, cross-border pursuit, diplomatic pressure and political mobilisation. Its narratives can also influence sensitive domestic is...
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Foreign Policy Begins at Home: Students Analyse PNG’s Domestic Challenges and External Relations

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By Bernard Yegiora  On Friday, 17 July 2026, students in PG428 Foreign Policy in PNG participated in the Week 3 Q&A activity on Foreign Policy as an Extension of Domestic Policy . The activity required students to examine how PNG’s domestic challenges shape its foreign policy priorities, external partnerships, and implementation capacity under the Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 . The main inquiry question was: How does one domestic policy challenge shape PNG’s foreign policy under the Foreign Policy White Paper 2025? The seven permanent groups examined different domestic policy areas and presented their findings to the class. National Security and Border Security Group 1 examined national security and border security. The group identified weak coordination among government agencies, limited security capabilities, border-management weaknesses, and non-traditional security threats as major domestic challenges. These challenges influence PNG’s foreign policy by encouraging stron...
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Students Review PNG’s Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 Using Four Levels of Analysis

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 By Bernard Yegiora Students in PG428 Foreign Policy in PNG recently completed a special online activity reviewing the PNG Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 using Gyngell and Wesley’s four levels of foreign policy analysis : strategic, contextual, organisational, and operational. The activity required students to move beyond simply summarising the White Paper. Instead, they were asked to review it as a foreign policy decision-making document . This meant examining how PNG’s national interests, domestic and regional challenges, institutional actors, and implementation issues shape the country’s foreign policy direction. The session was conducted through Zoom, with student groups presenting their analysis to the class. Each group reviewed the White Paper through the four levels of analysis and identified which level best explained the document overall. Most groups selected the strategic level as the primary level of analysis, arguing that the White Paper is mainly concerned with PNG...
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From Dual-Track Pragmatism to 'One China' Consolidation: A Major Shift in China–PNG Relations

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By Bernard Yegiora The meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and PNG Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko in Manila on 22 July 2026 should not be treated as another routine diplomatic engagement. It confirms a significant change in the political foundations of China–PNG relations. PNG and China reaffirmed their deepening bilateral partnership during high-level talks in Manila on 22 July 2026, with the One-China Policy and expanded cooperation central to the discussions. The formal diplomatic position has not changed: PNG has recognised the People’s Republic of China and adhered to the 'One China' Policy since diplomatic relations were established in 1976. What has changed is how strictly PNG is now interpreting and implementing that policy. For almost four decades, PNG maintained a form of dual-track pragmatism . It recognised Beijing diplomatically while allowing unofficial commercial and economic relations with Taiwan. The decision to close the Taipei Econom...
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Warning Signs from West Papua: What PNG’s National Security Sector Must Note

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By Bernard Yegiora  Part One of a three-part series on the implications of the West Papua conflict for PNG's national security. Recent developments in West Papua should be treated as early-warning indicators by PNG’s National Security Agency and the other agencies operating within the National Security Sector. Videos circulated on Facebook and other social-media platforms appear to show West Papuan armed fighters displaying high-powered firearms. On 2 July 2026, fighters from the West Papua National Liberation Army, commonly known as the TPNPB, claimed responsibility for killing an American pilot and burning his aircraft in Yahukimo. The armed group subsequently claimed responsibility for killing three Indigenous Papuans whom it accused of supplying intelligence to Indonesian authorities. Viewed individually, these incidents may appear to be separate episodes within a longstanding armed conflict. Viewed collectively, however, they indicate a possible increase in armed capability,...
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Reading PNG’s Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 Through the Four Levels of Foreign Policy Analysis

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By Bernard Yegiora PNG’s Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 is more than a statement of diplomatic priorities. It is a strategic document that seeks to explain how PNG should understand its place in the world, define its national interests, organise its foreign-policy institutions and translate policy commitments into practical action. A useful way to analyse the White Paper is through Allan Gyngell and Michael Wesley’s four levels of foreign policy making: the strategic, contextual, organisational and operational levels . Gyngell and Wesley’s four interrelated levels of foreign policy making—strategic, contextual, organisational and operational—which operate simultaneously in shaping foreign policy decisions and implementation. These four levels should not be treated as separate stages in a linear process. Gyngell and Wesley argue that foreign policy making occurs simultaneously across all four levels. Each level performs a different function, but all are interconnected. Focusing on onl...
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