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From Tehran to Port Moresby: Why PNG Needs an Asymmetric Intelligence Strategy

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By Bernard Yegiora PNG’s security community is still largely conditioned to think in conventional terms—more patrol boats, more personnel, more infrastructure. That model is increasingly outdated. The emerging global security environment demonstrates a different logic: states with limited resources are no longer trying to match power—they are learning to outmaneuver it . Iran is the clearest contemporary example of this shift. This is not about endorsing Iran’s politics or ideology. It is about understanding strategy. And strategically, Iran has demonstrated a hard truth: you do not need superior capability to shape outcomes—you need superior intelligence and asymmetric thinking . Emerging battlefield innovation: the growing use of low-cost, precision drones highlights a shift toward asymmetric maritime warfare, where technologically simple systems can challenge high-value naval assets. The Strategic Shift: Intelligence Over Force Iran’s operational model is built on a simple but effe...
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From Huawei to Cybersecurity: PNG’s digital dilemma in a contested Pacific

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By Bernard Yegiora PNG’s digital transformation is no longer just a development story. It is a strategic one. In my earlier work on The Yegiora Files , I examined the Huawei debate in PNG at a time when it was framed largely as a telecommunications issue. Yet those discussions were never simply about infrastructure. They were early indicators of a deeper shift: the entry of geopolitics into PNG’s digital space. Today, that shift is unmistakable. Cybersecurity has emerged as a central concern, and the questions raised nearly a decade ago now sit at the core of PNG’s national security agenda. In 2025, I invited Dr. Mengmeng Ge—now with Monash University—to deliver a Zoom guest lecture to my students, offering practical insights into cybersecurity, with a focus on social engineering and the exploitation of human vulnerabilities in digital systems. The turning point came with PNG’s engagement with Huawei. In Australian Ignorance and the PNG Huawei Deal , I argued that traditional partners...
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Cybersecurity and Digital Change in PNG: Two Case Studies, One Strategic Reality

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 By Bernard Yegiora This week’s student-led seminar marked a transition in the course. Having moved from conceptual discussions of security and the China threat, the focus now shifts to cybersecurity as a second major case study. What emerged from the discussion is a clear analytical distinction: two different but interconnected cases—PNG and China—operating within the same strategic digital environment . The seven questions guiding the seminar were not random. They were systematically derived from two core readings:   Natanegara et al. on ICT infrastructure and governance in PNG   Lindsay et al. on China’s cyber strategy and global cybersecurity politics Taken together, these questions reveal a broader argument: cyberspace is now a domain where development, security, and geopolitics intersect . Case One: PNG – Cybersecurity as a Development-Security Nexus The first, third, fifth, and sixth questions draw directly from and focus on PNG. The central issue is straight...
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Iran’s War and the First Strategic Test of PNG’s UAE Partnership and the Pukpuk Treaty

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 By Bernard Yegiora The escalating war involving Iran has quickly become one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent years. What began as a regional confrontation has rapidly evolved into a conflict with global economic and strategic implications. Energy markets are reacting, shipping routes in the Gulf are under pressure, and major powers are recalibrating their military and diplomatic posture. For countries far from the Middle East, the conflict might appear distant. However, for PNG, the situation has unexpectedly intersected with two emerging foreign policy developments: the growing relationship with the UAE and the security partnership with Australia under the Pukpuk Treaty . The conflict raises an important question for policymakers and analysts in PNG. Did the global intelligence community anticipate such a dramatic escalation, or has Iran fundamentally surprised the strategic establishment? For decades, security analysts warned that any confrontation...
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PNG’s Middle East policy problem: decisions without expertise

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By Bernard Yegiora PNG has taken several significant diplomatic steps into the Middle East over the past two years. First came the decision to open an embassy in Jerusalem in 2023. Then followed efforts to deepen relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through visa-free travel arrangements and discussion of stronger trade links centred around Dubai. Now, as tensions escalate across the Middle East – including the expanding confrontation involving Iran – PNG’s leaders increasingly find themselves commenting on a region that is among the most complex geopolitical arenas in the world. Yet there is a structural problem at the centre of this emerging foreign policy engagement. PNG is making consequential diplomatic moves in the Middle East without a strong domestic base of expertise to understand the region. This gap is increasingly visible across several recent developments. The Jerusalem decision PNG opened its embassy in Jerusalem in September 2023, becoming the first Pacific I...
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China in the Pacific: Development Partner or Strategic Challenge? Reflections from PG420 Seminar 4

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By Bernard Yegiora  In the study of international relations, the most important intellectual skill students must develop is the ability to assess competing perspectives and arrive at their own informed conclusions . This was the central objective of Seminar 4 in the unit PG420: International and Regional Security at Divine Word University. The seminar focused on one of the most debated geopolitical questions in the Pacific today: Is China a development partner or a strategic challenge for PNG and the wider Pacific region? The video recording of the seminar discussion is available below: https://youtu.be/MHzf9aMsLWM The image shown during the seminar relates to an ongoing research project examining the introduction of Juncao technology in Goroka, Eastern Highlands Province. As part of this study, we conducted interviews with local farmers to understand their perceptions of the technology and its potential contribution to rural livelihoods. The detailed findings of this research...
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Is China a Security Threat or a Development Partner? A Seminar Reflection

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By Bernard Yegiora In this week’s seminar , the central objective was not to tell students what to think about China’s growing presence in PNG and the Pacific. The objective was to expose them to competing scholarly perspectives and require them to form their own informed judgement. Seminar reflection: Is China a security threat or a development partner for PNG? Engaging the literature, examining competing views, and developing independent analysis. The discussion began with Matbob’s analysis of tensions between local communities and Chinese traders in PNG. These tensions highlight how economic competition, weak regulatory enforcement, and uneven development outcomes can produce social friction. Students were asked to consider whether such localised grievances constitute evidence of a broader security threat — or whether they reflect governance challenges within PNG itself. We then examined PNG’s balancing strategy. As argued in my own work , PNG engages China economically while main...
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