Asia-Pacific geopolitics: small states and their power projection

Does the size of a state matter in geopolitics? This is a difficult question to answer in light of the changes that we have witnessed in the world today. In particular, the nuclear threat posed by North Korea, the growth of Singapore and the rise of PNG. These three states are small in land area but project to a certain degree a huge amount of power in regional and global affairs.

To answer our question, let us begin with the statement; 'the larger the state, the more powerful it is'. To prove or disprove this statement we will compare briefly the work of Hans Morgenthau and Azhar Ahmad about the concept of national power. We will also use the cases of North Korea, Singapore and PNG in our brief comparative analysis.

Size is a geographical factor that we can use to measure or analyze the behaviour of a state in the regional or global political arena. Apart from size, the other geographical factors that are included in our analytical framework are:

• national resources
• geographical location
• topography
• demography
• climate

Morgenthau in his categorization of national power made the distinction between stable and unstable elements of national power. He stated that geography is a stable element of national power. Geography can be further subdivided into geographical location, size and topography.

He believed that the possibility of nuclear war has enhanced the importance of size as a source of national power. To make a nuclear threat credible, a nation requires territory that is large enough to disperse its industrial and population centers as well as its nuclear installations. He said the conjunction between the large radius of nuclear destruction and the relatively small size of their territories imposes a severe handicap upon the ability of the traditional nation-states, such as Great Britain and France, to make a nuclear threat credible. He said it is the quasi-continental size of their territory that allows nations like the United States, Russia and China to play the role of major nuclear powers. 

In the Asia-Pacific region, North Korea is seen as a nuclear threat. However, if you look closely at what Morgenthau stated in his book, North Korea is not a credible nuclear threat. The country is not big enough like the United States, Russia or China. Hence, it cannot disperse its industrial and population centers as well as its nuclear installations. 

Furthermore, Ahmad shared Organski's typology in his work. Organski classified the different elements of national power into two groups as well. Geography is a natural element compared to economic which is a social element. Under geography, Organski listed geographical location, size, topography and climate as subdivisions.

He argued that the size of a country makes it possible to support a large population. In addition, he said the larger the size the more space a country has for various activities such as agriculture, farming and scientific experiments.

Let us compare Singapore with PNG to prove Ahmad's argument. Singapore is a country in the Asia-Pacific region that is very small in terms of its size. The Republic is made up of one main island and other small islets. The total land area is 693 square kilometers. On the other hand, when you look at PNG, our total land area is 462, 840 square kilometers. That means a difference of 462, 147 square kilometers. PNG is bigger then Singapore.

In 2018, Singapore's net imports of fresh fruit was $528 million. Malaysia was the major supplier of fresh fruit followed by the United States, China and Australia. Fruit production in Singapore is minimal which means that most of the tropical fruits that are sold in Singapore come from Malaysia. Apart from fruits, Malaysia also supplies vegetables to Singapore.   

Singapore does not produce beef in large quantity for domestic consumption and export because it does have enough land for grazing cattle. As a result, in 2018, 33% of its beef and beef products came from Australia. Australia and New Zealand are traditional suppliers and Brazil competes in the frozen beef segment. 

Going through the website outlining Singapore's suppliers, it is evident that Singapore as a country imports a large amount of its food items from different countries. This is connected to James Marape's foreign policy vision to focus on Southeast Asia. He mentioned that he intends to look at Singapore in a bigger way. He further talked about PNG's potential to be the food basket for the Asia-Pacific region.

James Marape's ambitious plans outline our size advantage. PNG has the land area to be the food basket for the Asia-Pacific region. He identified suitable land for grazing cattle and beef production in the Western province, the two Sepik provinces including Madang and Morobe which house the fertile Ramu valley. He said Indonesia consumes a lot of beef and is a potential market for PNG beef. 

This could potentially be a huge competition for Australian beef farmers if Marape is serious about the beef market in Southeast Asia, in particular Indonesia and Singapore. In March 2019, Australia and Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. The aim of the agreement was to help Australian beef farmers sell more of their products to Indonesia. Indonesia is Australia's fourth largest agricultural export market, worth $3.35 billion in 2017.    

Ahmad states that the larger the size the more natural resources. Singapore being a small country does not have much natural resources in comparison to PNG. The worldatlas website states that:

"Singapore has limited natural resources due to its small size." 

Below is a list of natural resources as per the article:

• Beautiful scenery
• Arable land
• fruits
• flowers
• Animal farming
• Fish

The list does not have timber, coffee, tea, copra, cocoa, vanilla, palm oil, gold, nickel, cobalt and gas. This is indicative that PNG with a larger land area possesses more natural resources in comparison to Singapore. 

 

Going back to our hypothesis, the Council on Foreign Relations states that Singapore is a wealthy and most trade dependent country which can punch above its weight in regional and global affairs. The country is a close strategic partner of the United States in Southeast Asia, and maintains a close relationship with China. 

 

Singapore has shown that size does not matter. You can be a small country in terms of your land area but with the right policies and personnel you can develop your country to a level where it makes you influential in regional and global affairs. 

 

To conclude, size does and does not matter in geopolitics. Using the Morgenthau logic, North Korea is not a credible nuclear threat because it is a small country. The case of Singapore and PNG tells us that a country can be small in size but can influence the outcomes of political and economic events in the region and the globe. PNG is larger in size but in comparison to Singapore we still have a long way to go.   

Reference

Morgenthau, H. (revised by Thompson, K. W. & Clinton, D. W. (2006). Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace (7th ed.). Beijing: Peking University Press.