The Rise of China and Its Impact on Regional and International Security

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The rise of China is one of the most significant geopolitical shifts of the 21st century. As the world's second-largest economy and an increasingly assertive global power, China's expanding influence is reshaping international and regional security landscapes. Understanding the factors that drive China's growth and distinguishing between its global and regional ambitions are crucial in assessing the broader implications of its rise. By addressing key seminar questions, students in PG420 International and Regional Security can critically analyze China’s role in economic, political, and security affairs, particularly in the Pacific region.

Screenshot of the Week 5 page on Moodle.

To guide this analysis, the following key seminar questions will be explored:

  1. Economic Influence and Sovereignty
    According to Matbob, economic activities involving Chinese traders have both benefits and risks for local communities. How might reliance on Chinese businesses influence PNG's sovereignty and social cohesion?

  2. Infrastructure Competition and Autonomy
    O'Dowd notes that China's infrastructure projects in PNG have prompted counter-initiatives from Western powers. How should PNG balance these competing offers to maintain its autonomy in national development?

  3. Foreign Aid and Geopolitical Interests
    Zhang analyzes China's foreign aid practices in the Pacific. To what extent does China's foreign aid strategy align with its broader geopolitical interests, and how does it challenge traditional donors in the region?

  4. Strategic Dilemmas in the Pacific
    Wesley-Smith and Smith highlight the strategic dilemma faced by Pacific Island states in balancing relationships with China and traditional Western allies. How can these states navigate great power competition to avoid being drawn into security conflicts while maximizing development benefits?

  5. Security Priorities and External Narratives
    According to Kabutaulaka, Pacific Island leaders have prioritized non-traditional security concerns like climate change over external military threats. How does this approach challenge the narratives of external powers, including China's strategic initiatives in the region?

  6. Environmental and Social Impacts of the BRI
    Szadziewski discusses the environmental and social implications of China's infrastructure projects under the BRI. How can Pacific Island states ensure that such projects adhere to regional sustainability goals without compromising on development needs?

  7. Public Perceptions and Foreign Policy
    Matbob discusses the mixed perceptions of Chinese economic activities in PNG. How do these perceptions shape public opinion about China's presence, and what role does this play in influencing PNG’s foreign policy towards China?

One of the primary factors driving China's rise is its economic engagement, including trade, investment, and infrastructure development. As Matbob highlights, economic activities involving Chinese traders present both opportunities and risks for local communities in PNG. While Chinese businesses contribute to economic growth, their dominance raises concerns about sovereignty and social cohesion. Addressing this question helps students evaluate how reliance on Chinese investments might shape PNG’s political autonomy and social stability, an essential consideration in understanding China’s broader influence in developing nations.

Similarly, O’Dowd's analysis of China’s infrastructure projects in PNG highlights the geopolitical competition between China and Western powers. The influx of Chinese-funded projects has prompted counter-initiatives from the U.S., Australia, and other allies, intensifying strategic rivalry in the Pacific. This raises the question of how PNG can navigate these competing offers while maintaining its sovereignty. Exploring this issue enables students to assess how smaller states like PNG can strategically balance economic opportunities without becoming overly dependent on a single major power.

China’s foreign aid strategy in the Pacific also plays a critical role in shaping its geopolitical influence. Zhang’s research suggests that China’s aid programs are closely aligned with its broader strategic interests, often challenging the traditional dominance of Western donors. Examining the motivations behind China’s foreign aid allows students to understand its long-term objectives in the region and assess whether these initiatives serve mutual development goals or primarily advance Beijing’s strategic agenda.

The dilemma Pacific Island nations face in managing relations with both China and traditional Western allies is another critical issue. As Wesley-Smith and Smith point out, these states must navigate great power competition carefully to avoid being drawn into security conflicts while maximizing development benefits. By engaging with this question, students can explore the strategic calculations of Pacific Island governments and evaluate whether a neutral or multi-aligned approach is feasible in an era of intensifying geopolitical competition.

Security considerations in the Pacific are further complicated by non-traditional threats such as climate change. Kabutaulaka argues that many Pacific leaders prioritize climate security over external military concerns, a stance that sometimes challenges the narratives promoted by external powers, including China. Investigating this perspective helps students differentiate between Western security frameworks and the security priorities of Pacific Island states, shedding light on how China’s initiatives align or clash with regional concerns.

Another key aspect of China’s engagement in the region is the environmental and social impact of its BRI projects. Szadziewski highlights concerns over sustainability, raising questions about how Pacific Island states can ensure that such projects adhere to regional development goals without sacrificing environmental integrity. Addressing this issue equips students with a critical lens to assess the long-term implications of infrastructure diplomacy and whether it truly benefits host countries.

Finally, Matbob’s discussion on public perceptions of China in PNG underscores how mixed sentiments influence foreign policy decisions. While some view China’s presence positively due to economic benefits, others express concerns over issues such as labor practices and business ethics. Understanding how these perceptions shape political discourse enables students to analyze how domestic attitudes influence PNG’s foreign policy orientation towards China. Ultimately, answering these seminar questions provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating China’s rise and its profound implications on the international and regional security landscape.

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