Rise and fall realism

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By Colin Elman and Michael A. Jensen

Source: Williams, P. D. (Ed.). (2008). Security studies: an introduction. London: Routledge Taylor and Francis Group.

What is rise and fall realism?

Rise and fall realism remerge as a powerful alternative to the balance of power theories that predominated international relations scholarship during the 1950’s.

Central theme

Hegemony is the foundation for peace while balance is often associated with war (Organski).

H

Dynamics

Rise and fall realism emphasizes that war between major powers is least likely when the international system is dominated by a single state and when there are no rising challengers vying for system leadership.

Given its privileged position, a dominant state is capable of shaping the rules and practices of the international system in such a way as to satisfy its selfish interest.

Stability is a product of this hegemonic order, as states which are dissatisfied with the status quo lack the capabilities to change it.

When power becomes evenly matched as a result of differential growth patterns, war over system leadership is likely to occur.

As the power gap between the leading state and its rival(s) narrows the declining hegemon may rationally calculate the need for preventive war in order to preserve its status as the world’s top power.

In the absence of a preventive attack a dissatisfied rising challenger could initiate a war in an attempt to capture the top spot and all of the benefits that go along with it.

C

Rise and fall depicts the course of human history, or some significant portion of it, as the successive rise and fall of great powers.

Focus

Pay attention to the mechanisms that cause states to grow at different rates and at different times.

Rise and fall versus neorealism

Neorealism – changes in distribution of capability (power) in the international system as being primarily the product of alliance and war.

Rise and fall realism – contend that differential growth rates are mainly cause by processes which are internal to states.

Processes;

1. Timing of industrialization

2. Social formation and type of economic system

3. Bureaucratic politics and productivity

4. Military, economic and technological innovation

These processes are not at work in all states at the same time or to the same extent, states tend to rise and fall in relation to one another.

Internal developments and the timing of their onset produce the periods of transition from one system leader to the next, which are often marked by war.

Security

In this traditional understanding of rise and fall realism the narrative clearly talks about the traditional state centric approach. States need to build up their military power to either prepare or launch a preventive war or a challenger war because as they grow they will follow the unavoidable rise and fall pattern.

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