Exploring the 'Look North' Policy: Pacific Countries' Shift towards China

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In recent years, the 'Look North' policy approach has garnered significant attention and debate among developing countries in the Pacific region. Although geographically speaking, China may not be directly north of countries like Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Fiji, it is figuratively the focal point of this policy shift.

The genesis of this transformation dates back to the 1980s, and it continues to shape the foreign policy decisions of Pacific nations today. The core motivation behind this strategic pivot is the desire to learn from China's remarkable model of development and position themselves strategically to benefit from the nation's rapid growth.

One of the latest countries to embrace the 'Look North' policy is the Solomon Islands, marking a significant foreign policy change after 36 years. The Solomon Islands now align themselves with the 'One China' policy, viewing Taiwan as an integral part of mainland China rather than an independent nation. This move opens doors for them to participate in the One Belt One Road Initiative.

PNG established diplomatic ties with China in 1976, under the 'Friends to All and Enemies to None' foreign policy approach. Remarkably, PNG, a democracy, managed to cultivate amicable relations with communist China, transcending ideological divides.

A picture tour of a Lahui Ako's life as a diplomat in China from 2003-2007

In 1994, then-Prime Minister Paias Wingti unveiled the 'Look North' policy with the original intent of reducing national dependence on Australia. The goal was to diversify and strengthen relations with China and other Asian countries. This shift was driven by the growing influence of Asian countries, particularly China, which was emerging as a powerful and promising partner for economic opportunities, trade, and investments.

However, an important critique voiced by Philip Mitna was that Wingti's administration struggled to communicate the 'Look North' policy effectively at the organizational level within the bureaucracy. This lack of clarity led to difficulties in determining key decision-makers, purposes, and alignment with national interests, resulting in a lack of a clear, practical policy framework.

This situation somewhat mirrors the current 'Food Basket' vision articulated by Prime Minister James Marape, who aims to look towards Southeast Asia. However, for such a policy shift to succeed, a well-defined written policy approach is essential, learning from the past mistakes during the 'lost decade of the 1990s' as outlined by Mitna.

Mitna also highlights that PNG did indeed benefit from the 'Look North' policy. It strengthened relations with various Asian countries, providing opportunities for Asian businesses and state-owned enterprises to tap into PNG's resources, leading to increased aid and investments from China.

The theory of liberalism, particularly the sub-theory of commercial liberalism, can help explain the 'Look North' policy. Commercial liberalism emphasizes free trade between states, which can decrease the likelihood of conflict and contribute to the economic development of developing countries like PNG.

However, Mitna points out that while trade was discussed during Wingti's tenure, the government's inability to formulate a coherent trade policy resulted in ad hoc and conflicting rules and regulations. Moreover, there was a disconnect between trade policy and other key economic, sectoral, and social policy areas.

To capitalize fully on the Asian century and the One Belt One Road Initiative, PNG must conduct in-depth research into international trade. A coherent trade policy that aligns with national interests is crucial. Understanding the Chinese trading system and network is imperative to avoid policy misalignment and make the most of this transformative era.

In conclusion, the 'Look North' policy represents a significant foreign policy shift for Pacific nations, driven by the desire to learn from China's development model and strategically position themselves for economic opportunities. To succeed in this endeavor, clear communication, coherent policy frameworks, and a deep understanding of international trade dynamics are essential. The lessons from the past should guide the Pacific region towards a prosperous future in the Asian century.

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