Balancing Regional Leadership and Bilateral Commitments: PNG’s Defence Treaty Dilemma

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One issue that continues to stir debate in Pacific diplomacy is the tension between bilateral defence partnerships and the collective aspiration for a Pacific-led approach to security. As PNG deepens its defence ties with Australia via a defence treaty, it must carefully consider how this move may be interpreted by its Pacific neighbours who are increasingly vocal about regional autonomy and leadership.

A Bird of Paradise dons an Australian military uniform—symbolising PNG's delicate balancing act between national identity and strategic defence partnerships.

The Pacific Islands Forum and key declarations such as the Boe Declaration on Regional Security (2018) have made it clear: Pacific Island nations want a regional security framework shaped by their own voices, values, and vulnerabilities—not imposed or driven solely by external powers. The idea of a Pacific-led approach to security emphasises the protection of human rights, climate resilience, border integrity, and sustainable development, rather than a narrow focus on geostrategic competition.

This is where the defence treaty with Australia becomes particularly sensitive. While the treaty promises to boost PNG’s defence capability, disaster response readiness, and regional maritime security, its broader geopolitical implications cannot be ignored. For other Pacific nations—especially those advocating for neutrality or greater strategic autonomy—the treaty may be seen as a reversion to old patterns of dependency where external powers dictate security priorities in the region.

If Papua New Guinea aligns too closely with Australia via this defence treaty, how will other Pacific Island countries react?

Fiji, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands have all at various times expressed concern about the overshadowing influence of external actors in Pacific affairs. A growing number of leaders have asserted that true security lies not only in defence hardware or military cooperation, but in development, social cohesion, environmental resilience, and regional solidarity. If PNG appears to be bypassing regional consensus in favour of bilateral defence arrangements, it may inadvertently weaken this solidarity.

Moreover, in a strategic environment marked by increasing U.S.-China competition, regional countries are wary of being caught in a proxy tug-of-war. Australia is a key U.S. ally, and its defence treaties often reflect broader Western security concerns. China, on the other hand, has positioned itself as a development partner in the Pacific, offering alternatives that, while controversial, give PICs diplomatic leverage. PNG’s treaty with Australia could thus be interpreted as tilting decisively toward one geopolitical camp—potentially alienating countries seeking a non-aligned posture.

This does not mean PNG should avoid signing defence treaties altogether. Rather, such agreements must be embedded within a broader strategy that reinforces Pacific unity and aligns with the Boe Declaration. Transparency, regional consultation, and clear articulation of how bilateral agreements support—not undermine—Pacific-led security frameworks are crucial.

PNG stands at a crossroads. It can either be seen as a bridge between the Pacific and its traditional partners, or as a pivot that accelerates fragmentation within the region. The defence treaty with Australia must therefore be managed with diplomatic sensitivity and strategic foresight. To maintain regional trust, PNG must assure its neighbours that while it strengthens its bilateral ties, it remains committed to a Pacific-defined security vision—one that is inclusive, comprehensive, and sovereign.

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