The Yegiora Files

By Bernard Yegiora  The global maritime order is no longer operating on passive assumptions of free access. It is shifting toward strategic control, and states are beginning to assert their interests over critical waterways. Iran’s move to charge vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz is a clear signal that the rules are being tested . Indonesia’s discussions around the Malacca Strait reinforce the same trajectory. These developments are not anomalies—they reflect a recalibration of how sovereign states interpret control over maritime space. PNG must read this shift carefully and respond with intent. For too long, the Jomard Passage has been treated as a neutral corridor rather than a national asset. This is a fundamental policy failure. The passage sits within PNG’s maritime domain and serves as a route for international shipping, yet the country derives minimal economic benefit from its use. At the same time, PNG carries the burden of environmental risk, maritime safety concer...

By Bernard Yegiora Climate change is no longer a peripheral environmental concern for PNG. It is a structural threat to national stability, human security, and state legitimacy. Seminar 8 examined this shift through the lens of the Boe Declaration on Regional Security , which explicitly identifies climate change as the “single greatest threat” to Pacific peoples. The central policy challenge is not recognition—it is execution. PNG continues to treat climate change as a development issue when it must be operationalised within the national security framework. Seminar 8 in session: unpacking climate change as an existential security threat to Papua New Guinea, with a focus on the Boe Declaration and the structural policy gaps in preparedness, coordination, and response. The 2015 drought and frost crisis, which affected nearly two million people, remains a defining case. As highlighted by Thomas and Ezebilo , the scale of the crisis was not solely the result of climatic conditions, but o...

By Bernard Yegiora PNG’s Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 (pp. 57–58) establishes a clear strategic baseline: climate change is not a peripheral environmental issue but a core pillar of foreign policy, national development, and international engagement. When juxtaposed with the seven seminar questions derived from Goulding , Carter , Pascoe et al ., and Hualupmomi , a critical insight emerges—PNG’s policy architecture is directionally sound, but operational execution remains constrained by structural, institutional, and geopolitical limitations. For a full breakdown of the seven questions and their analytical framing, refer to the seminar recording here:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJtT0C-dYyw Screenshot from the seminar recording illustrating Question 1, which examines Goulding’s concept of Pacific Island states as “large ocean states” and its strategic relevance for enhancing regional influence in global climate change negotiations. The first point of convergence lies in G...

By Bernard Yegiora PNG’s foreign policy should be guided by national interest, not sentiment, symbolism, or diplomatic habit. The Foreign Policy White Paper presents support for Israel as a settled position, linked to the 2013 bilateral declaration, the 2023 opening of PNG’s embassy in Jerusalem, and a stated intention to expand cooperation in agriculture, security and information technology. That is a major strategic commitment. It should therefore be subjected to continuous review, especially when the Middle East is entering a more dangerous and more legally contested phase.  Screenshot from Pillar 1: Strong Bilateral Relationships , page 48 of the Papua New Guinea Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 , highlighting PNG’s stated position as a “consistent supporter of Israel in the United Nations.” The immediate policy problem is that PNG’s support at the UN looks increasingly automatic. Open-source UN records show PNG voting with Israel and a very small minority of states on multip...

By Bernard Yegiora  PNG’s foreign policy is entering a decisive phase. The Foreign Policy White Paper 2025 positions the United States as a central partner in security, trade, and development. At face value, the policy reflects confidence. But a closer reading reveals something more measured—something policymakers cannot afford to ignore. Screenshot of the cover page of the PNG Foreign Policy White Paper 2025. The White Paper states that PNG and the US enjoy “strong and amicable ties… based on our shared history and values,” and recognises the US as “a major economic partner” with a growing role in regional security. These are not abstract claims. They are reinforced by concrete agreements: the 2022 Defence Aid Agreement, the 2023 Defence Cooperation Agreement, and the Ship Rider Agreement, all of which deepen operational alignment between Port Moresby and Washington.  Screenshot of page 47 of the PNG Foreign Policy White Paper 2025. From a policy standpoint, PNG is clear...

By Bernard Yegiora PNG is entering a decisive phase in its digital transformation. Increased internet penetration, mobile connectivity, and digital service delivery are accelerating economic and social participation. However, this expansion is simultaneously widening the national attack surface. The central argument of Seminar 6—drawing explicitly on the work of Ige and Watson —is clear: cyber security in PNG has moved beyond an ICT management issue and now sits firmly within the national security domain. For those who want to engage directly with the seminar discussion, you can watch the full session here: Seminar 6 Video on YouTube Seminar 6 in action: unpacking Ige’s critique of “analog-era” cybercrime laws and interrogating the effectiveness of PNG’s Cybercrime Code Act 2016, with a sharp focus on enforcement gaps and their implications for state credibility and public trust in the digital age. 1. Cybercrime as a National Security Threat Building on empirical observations by Ige ...

By Bernard Yegiora PNG’s security community is still largely conditioned to think in conventional terms—more patrol boats, more personnel, more infrastructure. That model is increasingly outdated. The emerging global security environment demonstrates a different logic: states with limited resources are no longer trying to match power—they are learning to outmaneuver it . Iran is the clearest contemporary example of this shift. This is not about endorsing Iran’s politics or ideology. It is about understanding strategy. And strategically, Iran has demonstrated a hard truth: you do not need superior capability to shape outcomes—you need superior intelligence and asymmetric thinking . Emerging battlefield innovation: the growing use of low-cost, precision drones highlights a shift toward asymmetric maritime warfare, where technologically simple systems can challenge high-value naval assets. The Strategic Shift: Intelligence Over Force Iran’s operational model is built on a simple but effe...